What the data actually says
Premium-and-above segments kept growing in 2024 (+3% volumes globally, excluding national spirits), but North America/Europe were more subdued—translation: choose your battles. Meanwhile, U.S. spirits saw “premiumization on hold,” with revenue down but high-end tiers still accounting for 59% of total revenue—proof that the top end remains critical even in a reset.
Why shoppers are choosier
- Wallet pressure + moderation: People are buying fewer bottles overall, so every premium purchase needs a clear why.
- Occasion-driven buying: Less random splurging; more “birthday dinner,” “client gift,” “cellar treat.”
- Proof over puffery: Origin, farming, vintage transparency, critic consensus—these win.
How I build a winning shelf (or list)
- Fewer hero SKUs: In each key category, stock the one or two bottles you can defend on quality, story, and value.
- Provenance cards: Short shelf-talkers: vineyard/site, farming certs, winemaker, and what makes this bottle drink above its price.
- Experience ladders: Taste-and-trade-up beats discounting. Pour a “reference” wine beside the upgrade; let the palate do the selling.
- Price ladders that make sense: Good, Better, Best with real deltas—structure like a football depth chart.
Where I’m putting chips right now
- Compelling regions under tariff pressure elsewhere: Chile/Australia for weeknight value; U.S. estate whites and rosés with clean-farming stories.
- Transparent, terroir-first producers at $20–$45: Where “this tastes like somewhere” lands.
Bottom line
Premium still pays—if you curate like a hawk. Trade up is alive, but it needs a better argument than a heavy glass bottle.
