September 19, 2025

Jeff Kretschmar: Moderation Nation—How No/Low Alcohol Became a $5B U.S. Frontier

U.S. drinkers hit a record low participation rate in 2025 while no-alcohol surges toward ~$5B by 2028. The picture is nuanced by age and occasion, but the opportunity is real—especially in beer and RTD

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Jeff Kretschmar: Moderation Nation—How No/Low Alcohol Became a $5B U.S. Frontier

Jeff Kretschmar

Jeff Kretschmar is a seasoned beverage industry strategist with over 20 years of experience in brand development, market entry, and retail execution.

He hosts The Wine Guy on WGHN, where he explores emerging trends, value wines, and shifting consumer preferences. Jeff created Distributor Wine Guide, offering practical strategies for staff sampling, chain merchandising, and RTD category growth.

His expertise bridges retail, distribution, and hospitality, with a focus on value positioning and scalable business models. Known for his educational storytelling and strategic insights, Jeff helps brands grow through informed decisions and compelling consumer experiences.

The headline shift

  • In 2025, only 54% of U.S. adults said they drink—a record low. A record 53% now believe even moderate drinking is harmful.
  • NOLO growth is durable: +7% CAGR for no-alcohol globally through 2028; U.S. no-alcohol is projected to reach ~$5B by 2028.

The nuance (and why it matters)

  • It’s not as simple as “Gen Z doesn’t drink.” IWSR’s latest Bevtrac shows Gen Z is closer to the pack than headlines suggest—so merchandise by occasion (weeknight, workout-friendly, brunch) more than by age.

How I build NOLO that moves

  • Put it inside the category (beer with beer, wine with wine), not on an exile endcap.
  • Call out use-cases: “Aperitivo Hour (0.0%), Brunch Bubbles (NA), Post-Run Pils (NA).”
  • Quality filter: Vacuum distillation or arrested fermentation over blunt dealcoholization when possible; keep sweetness in check.
  • Educate with pairings: Tacos with NA Mexican-style lager; grilled salmon with 0.0% rosé; zero-proof G&T with citrus-heavy salads.
  • Seasonal storytelling: Dry January, “Sober (ish) Summer,” football-friendly NA coolers.

Bottom line
Moderation is mainstream; authenticity sells. Curate for flavor first, stigma last.

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Non-Alcohol Brands

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Beyond Proof is where zero-proof and low-ABV brands break through the noise. Tailored for today’s mindful drinker, our platform elevates non-alcohol innovation through rich content, thought leadership, and immersive experiences that captivate.
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We help you earn shelf space — and consumer trust — by spotlighting taste, quality, and craftsmanship. From food pairings to flavor reviews, we position non-alc beverages with the same credibility and sensory appeal as traditional spirits.
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